Suku Bunga The Fed Naik Terus, Sinyal Optimisme FOMC Mulai Luntur

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat atau Federal Reserve (The Fed) menaikkan target suku bunga acuan AS sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) atau 0,25 persen ke kisaran 5 persen-5,25 persen atau level tertinggi 16 tahun terakhir.

Dalam pernyataan resmi setelah menggelar pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 2-3 Mei 2023, seperti dikutip dari situs resminya, The Fed mengatakan inflasi AS masih tetap tinggi dan ekonomi AS tumbuh dalam kecepatan sedang sepanjang kuartal pertama tahun 2023.

Apabila membandingkan dengan pernyataan The Fed saat FOMC Meeting pada 21-22 Maret 2023, maka optimisme The Fed soal ekonomi AS tampak luntur atau meredup. Sepanjang tahun 2023, masih tersisa 5 kali pertemuan FOMC, yaitu 13-14 Juni, 25-26 Juli, 19-20 September, 31 Oktober-1 November, dan 12-13 Desember.

Sebagai catatan, pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada kuartal I/2023 sebesar 1,1 persen (year on year/yoy), lebih rendah ketimbang kuartal sebelumnya sebesar 2,6 persen. Sementara itu, inflasi di AS tercatat 4,98 persen per 31 Maret, dari 6,04 persen pada Februari dan 6,41 persen pada Januari 2023. Aktivitas perekonomian dan inflasi menjadi salah satu fokus dari kebijakan The Fed.

Pada pernyataan resmi FOMC, Rabu (3/5/2023) atau kamis dini hari waktu Indonesia (4/5/2023), dalam kalimat pembukanya, The Fed mengatakan, “Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter.”

Padahal pada pernyataan resminya pada 22 Maret 2023 maupun 1 Februari 2023 , dalam kalimat pembukanya, The Fed mengatakan, “Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production.”

Berikut Pernyataan Resmi FOMC pada 3 Mei 2023:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Pernyataan Resmi FOMC pada 22 Maret 2023:

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Pernyataan Resmi FOMC The Fed pada 1 Februari 2023

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.